Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.003214 0.003527 0.003861 0.004244 0.004673 0.005139 0.005684
2026-01-11 0.002653 0.003086 0.003580 0.004189 0.004923 0.005785 0.006880
2026-01-18 0.002329 0.002816 0.003398 0.004151 0.005108 0.006293 0.007891
2026-01-25 0.002087 0.002601 0.003239 0.004096 0.005232 0.006704 0.008789
2026-02-01 0.001925 0.002463 0.003150 0.004107 0.005422 0.007198 0.009826
2026-02-08 0.001769 0.002314 0.003029 0.004054 0.005510 0.007547 0.010683
2026-02-15 0.001627 0.002170 0.002900 0.003973 0.005542 0.007808 0.011427
2026-02-22 0.001538 0.002090 0.002849 0.003993 0.005714 0.008279 0.012528
2026-03-01 0.001485 0.002055 0.002857 0.004094 0.006010 0.008957 0.014021
2026-03-08 0.001391 0.001954 0.002759 0.004030 0.006044 0.009225 0.014866
2026-03-15 0.001303 0.001856 0.002661 0.003954 0.006050 0.009444 0.015644
2026-03-22 0.001235 0.001782 0.002591 0.003917 0.006113 0.009758 0.016617
2026-03-29 0.001184 0.001734 0.002564 0.003951 0.006305 0.010326 0.018156
2026-04-05 0.001117 0.001658 0.002487 0.003900 0.006353 0.010653 0.019294
2026-04-12 0.001060 0.001593 0.002424 0.003865 0.006423 0.011021 0.020555
2026-04-19 0.001004 0.001528 0.002355 0.003814 0.006458 0.011326 0.021725
2026-04-26 0.000965 0.001487 0.002322 0.003825 0.006603 0.011849 0.023415
2026-05-03 0.000919 0.001429 0.002260 0.003776 0.006634 0.012153 0.024670
2026-05-10 0.000870 0.001368 0.002186 0.003701 0.006607 0.012338 0.025684
2026-05-17 0.000842 0.001338 0.002164 0.003720 0.006762 0.012906 0.027654
2026-05-24 0.000828 0.001331 0.002183 0.003813 0.007071 0.013827 0.030603
2026-05-31 0.000791 0.001282 0.002122 0.003754 0.007067 0.014074 0.031932
2026-06-07 0.000754 0.001232 0.002059 0.003684 0.007035 0.014256 0.033121